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No. 1 (2022)

The energy transition in the current global context

  • Domenico de Vincenzo
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3280/rgioa1-2022oa13368
Submitted
aprile 7, 2021
Published
2022-03-08

Abstract

The energy transition is a process of transformation of the mix of primary sources of energy, but it is also a process of change that implies a profound transformation, which leads to a modification of lifestyles and a transformation of economic processes, so that
we also arrive at the reduction of energy demand. Putting aside (at least for the moment) the problem of the depletion of fossil fuels, which for decades has occupied the debate on energy, given the renewed vitality in oil production, the energy transition is now exclusively dedicated to the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and mitigation of the causes of climate change. The process of replacing fossil fuels with clean and renewable energy, however, cannot fail to take into account the economic (price, demand and supply) and technical (capacity and production consistency) aspects that affect the use of different energy sources. The transition scenarios, therefore, should consider the economic aspects, but are often completely detached from them. The global economic context poses a challenge to the energy transition in at least two respects: 1) the reduction in the price of oil and 2) the abundant supply of oil. The price of oil, which has been falling since 2014 (although recovering in 2021) has been deeply affected by the collapse in energy demand caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. This price drop can make the energy transition problematic, as renewables could become more expensive than fossil fuels. The pandemic, however, has suddenly made all the previously developed scenarios obsolete, producing uncertainty about the future development of the energy transition.
The abundant supply of oil (itself the cause of the crisis in its price), in turn, increases this uncertainty. Indeed, if until the first decade of the 2000s it was the exhaustion of oil that paved the way for the energy transition, now it is its wide willingness to hinder it: it is necessary to face the transition not because of the exhaustion of oil, but despite the abundance of it, to counter the greenhouse effect.

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