Skip to main navigation menu Skip to main content Skip to site footer

Regular Articles

Vol. 25 No. 3 (2023)

Strategic foresight: Scenario planning for business development of the Indonesian Orchid Association (IOA), West Java, Indonesia

July 7, 2023


Agricultural businesses are often faced with uncertainty about the future, which can be both an opportunity and a threat to business development. This study aims to formulate a strategic foresight for business development at the Indonesian Orchid Association (IOA) West Java, Indonesia. Data collection was carried out using interview techniques and a literature study. Respondents were selected using a purposive sampling consisting of 18 business actors in IOA West Java, 2 employees of the Department of Food Crops and Horticulture West Java, and 1 BRIN researcher. The business development is planned with strategic foresight. The result showed that the driving factors that most influence businesses are the role of IOA West Java and the application of tissue culture technology. Strategic foresight for the next 5 years is focused on increasing farmer competence, applying tissue culture technology, and building market certainty, for the next 10 years, it is focused on meeting domestic demand for orchids by at least 50%, and for the next 15 years, it is focused on business continuity and increasing competitiveness.


  1. [AGRIP] Association of Governmental Risk Pools (2018). Framing The Future: A Guide to Strategic Foresight. -- [Online] Accessed on 2023, Feb 2.
  2. Agyekum, E.B. (2020). Energy Poverty in Energy Rich Ghana: a SWOT Analytical Approach for The Development of Ghana’s Renewable Energy. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 40, 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.seta.2020.100760.
  3. Alamanda, D.T., Anggadwita, G., Raynaldi, M., Novani, S., & Kijima, K. (2019). Designing strategies using IFE, EFE, IE, and QSPM analysis: digital village case. The Asian Journal of Technology Management, 12(1), 48-57.
  4. Anggraeni, N. (2022). Potensi Anggrek Indonesia di Tengah Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Pemikiran Masyarakat Ilmiah Berwawasan Agribisnis, 8(2), 639-648.
  5. Arifandy, F.P., Norsain, N., & dan Firmansyah, I.D. (2020). Peran Koperasi dalam Meningkatkan Perekonomian Masyarakat Nelayan: Perspektif Modal Kerja. Jurnal Akademi Akuntansi, 3(1): 118-132. doi: 10.22219/jaa.v3i1.11665.
  6. Bootz, J.-P., Monti, R., Durance, P., Pacini, V., & Chapuy, P. (2019). The links between French school of foresight and organizational learning: an assessment of developments in the last ten years. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 140, 92-104. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.007.
  7. Boroduske, A., Jekabsons, K., Riekstina, U., Muceniece, R., Rostoks, N., & Nakurte, I. (2021). Wild Sambucus nigra L. from north-east edge of the species range: A valuable germplasm with inhibitory capacity against SARS-CoV2 S-protein RBD and hACE2 binding in vitro. Industrial Crops and Products, 165, 113438. doi: 10.1016/j.indcrop.2021.113438.
  8. Center for Agricultural Data and Information Systems, Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture (2020). Outlook Anggrek Komoditas Pertanian Subsektor Hortikultura. Jakarta: Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture.
  9. Comber, J.B. (1990). Orchids of Java. London: Bentham-moxon Trust, The Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew.
  10. Cook, C.N., Inayatullah, S., Burgman, M.A., Sutherland, W.J., & Wintle, B.A. (2014). Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making. Trends in ecology & evolution, 29(9), 531-541. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.005.
  11. Darmawati, I.A.P., Astarini, I.A., Yuswanti, H., & Fitriani, Y. (2021). Pollination compatibility of Dendrobium spp. orchids from Bali, Indonesia, and the effects of adding organic matters on seed germination under in vitro culture. Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity, 22(5), 2554-2559. doi: 10.13057/biodiv/d220513.
  12. De, L.C., & Medhi, R.P. (2014). Climate change and its impact on orchid productivity. Science, 3(10), 500-504.
  13. De Moor, K., Saritas, O., Schuurman, D., Claeys, L., & De Marez, L. (2014). Towards Innovation Foresight: Two Empirical Case Studies on Future TV Experiences for/by users. Futures, 59, 39-49. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.009.
  14. Directorate General of Horticulture, Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture (2020). Kementan Dorong Ekspor Anggrek. -- [Online] Accessed on 2023, Mar 16.
  15. Fay, M.F. (2018). Orchid conservation: how can we meet the challenges in the twenty- first century?. Botanical studies, 59, 1-6. doi: 10.1186/s40529-018-0232-z.
  16. Fischer, E. dan Qaim, M. (2013). Smallholder Farmers and Collective Action: What Determines the Intensity of Participation?. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 65(3): 683-702. doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12060.
  17. Gandasari, D., Sarwoprasodjo, S., Ginting, B., & Susanto, D. (2015). Factors Affecting the Effectiveness of Alliance Communication in Orchid Consortium in Indonesia. Pertanika Journal of Social Sciences & Humanities, 23(2), 325-337.
  18. Gehman, J., Glaser, V.L., Eisenhardt, K.M., Gioia, D., Langley, A., & Corley, K.G. (2018). Finding theory-method fit: A comparison of three qualitative approaches to theory building. Journal of Management Inquiry, 27(3), 284-300. doi: 10.1177/1056492617706029.
  19. (2022). Geografi Provinsi Jawa Barat. [Online] -- Accessed on 2023, Mar 25.
  20. Gomes, F., Oliveira, M., & Chaves, M.S. (2018). An analysis of the relationship between knowledge sharing and the project management process groups. Knowledge and Process Management, 25(3), 1-12. doi: 10.1002/kpm.1578.
  21. Hanasov, F.J., & Mikayilov, J.I. (2017). The Impact of Age Groups on Consumption of Residential Electricity in Azerbaijan. Communist and Post Communist Studies, 50, 339-351. doi: 10.1016/j.postcomstud.2017.09.005.
  22. Harum, F., & Mostrup, S. (2014). Technical Guideline for Arboretum Establishment in West Manggarai District, Flores, Indonesia. Department of Geoscience and Natural Resource Management, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen.
  23. Harvey, C.A., Saborio-Rodríguez, M., Martinez-Rodríguez, M.R., Viguera, B., Chain-Guadarrama, A., Vignola, R., & Alpizar, F. (2018). Climate change impacts and adaptation among smallholder farmers in Central America. Agriculture & Food Security, 7(1), 1-20.
  24. Hilsdon, J. (2014). Peer learning for change in higher education. Innovations in Education and Teaching International, 51(3), 244-254. doi: 10.1080/14703297.2013.796709.
  25. Hinsley, A., De Boer, H.J., Fay, M.F., Gale, S.W., Gardiner, L.M., Gunasekara, R.S., Kumar, P., Masters, S., Metusala, D., Roberts, D.L., & dan Veldman (2017). A review of the trade in orchids and its implications for conservation. Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 186(4), 435-455. doi: 10.1093/botlinnean/box083.
  26. Hinsley, A. (2018). The role of online platforms in the illegal orchid trade in horticultural orchids via social media. Conservation Biology, 30(5), 1038-1047.
  27. Hinsley, A., De Boer, H.J., Fay, M.F., Gale, S.W., Gardiner, L.M., Gunasekara, R.S., Kumar, P., Masters, S., Metusala, D., Roberts, D.L., Veldman, S., Wong, S., & Phelps, J. (2018). A review of the trade in orchids and its implications for conservation. Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 186(4), 435-455. doi: 10.1093/botlinnean/box083.
  28. Hobday, A.J., Spillman, C.M., Paige Eveson, J., & Hartog, J.R. (2016). Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture. Fisheries Oceanography, 25, 45-56. doi: 10.1111/fog.12083.
  29. Iden, J., Methlie, L.B., & Christensen, G.E. (2016). The nature of strategic foresight research: A systematic literature review. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 87-97. Doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.002.
  30. Inayatullah, S. (2012). Universities in Malaysia in Tranformation. J. Future Stud, 17, 111-124.
  31. Inayatullah, S. (2013). The Futures of Policing: Going Beyond the Thin Blue Line. Futures, 49, 1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.007.
  32. Inayatullah, S., & Elouafi, I. (2014). The Alternative Futures of the International Centre for Biosaline Agriculture: From Salinity Research to Greening the Desert. Foresight, 16(5), 389-409.
  33. Iqbal, M., Elianda, Y., Akbar, A., & Nurhadiyanti. (2020). USA-China trade war: Economic impact on Indonesia. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(3), 1-8. doi: 10.1002/pa.2543.
  34. Khatun, K., Nath, U.K., & Rahman, M.S. (2020). Tissue culture of Phalaenopsis: Present status and future prospects. Journal of Advanced Biotechnology and Experimental Therapeutics, 3, 273-285. doi: 10.5455/jabet.2020.d135.
  35. Kirillova, I.A., & dan Kirillov, D.V. (2020). Impact of Weather Conditions on Seasonal Development, Population Structure and Reproductive Success on Dactylorhiza Traunsteineri (Orchidaceae) in the Komi Republic (Russia). Nature Conservation Research, 5(S1), 77-89. doi: 10.24189/ncr.2020.016.
  36. Kononiuk, A., Sacio-Szymańska, A., & Gáspár, J. (2017). How do companies envisage the future? Functional foresight approaches. Engineering Management in Production and Services, 9(4), 21-33. doi: 10.1515/emj-2017-0028.
  37. Lech, P. (2014). Managing knowledge in IT projects: a framework for enterprise system implementation. Journal of Knowledge Management, 18(3), 551-573. doi: 10.1108/JKM-01-2014-0006.
  38. Lim, W.M., Chin, M.W.C., Ee, Y.S., Fung, C.Y., Giang, C.S., Heng, K.S., Kong, M.L.F., Lim, A.S.S., Lim, B.C.Y., Lim, R.T., Lim, T.Y., Ling, C.C., Mandrinos, S., Nwobodo, S., Phang, C.S.C., She, L., Sim, C.H., Su, S.I., Wee, G.W.E., & Weissmann, M.A. (2022). What is at stake in a war? A prospective evaluation of the Ukraine and Russia conflict for business and society. Global Business and Organizational Excellence, 41(6), 23-36. doi: 10.1002/joe.22162.
  39. Marlinah, L. (2020). Peluang dan Tantangan UMKM dalam Upaya Memperkuat Perekonomian Nasional Tahun 2020 Ditengah Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Ekonomi, 22(2), 118-124. doi: 10.37721/je.v22i2.644.
  40. Nelwati, Abdullah, K.L., & Chan, C.M. (2018). A Systematic Review of Qualitative Studies Exploring Peer Learning Experiences of Undergraduate Nursing Students. Nurse Education Today, 71(1), 285-192. doi: 10.1016/j.nedt.2018.09.018.
  41. Nugroho, K. (2016). Skenario dan Foresight Kontribusi E-Commerce oleh UMKM dalam Menghadapi MEA (Studi Kasus Penerapan E-Commerce oleh UMKM Kota Depok). Thesis. National Resilience Study Program, Intelligence Strategic Studies Specialization. University of Indonesia Postgraduate.
  42. Nurmaryam, S. (2011). Strategi Pengembangan Usaha Tanaman Anggrek (Studi Kasus: Maya Orchid, Taman Anggrek Indonesia Permai, Jakarta Timur). Thesis. Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics and Management. Bogor Agricultural University.
  43. Ofuoku, A.U. (2013). Willingness of Farmers to Participate in Farmers’ Groups. Journal of Extension Systems, 29(1): 51-63.
  44. Popper, R. (2008). Foresight methodology. The handbook of technology foresight, 44-88.
  45. Raford, N. (2014). Online foresight platforms: Evidence for their impact on scenario planning & strategic foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 65-76. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.03.008.
  46. Rastogi, N.I.T.A.N.K., & Trivedi, M.K. (2016). PESTLE technique-a tool to identify external risks in construction projects. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET), 3(1), 384-388.
  47. Restanto, D.P., Santoso, B., Kriswanto, B., & Supardjono, S. (2016). The application of chitosan for protocorm like bodies (PLB) induction of orchid (Dendrobium sp) in vitro. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 9, 462-468. doi: 10.1016/j.aaspro.2016.02.164.
  48. Rohrbeck, R., & Schwarz, J.O. (2013). The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(8), 1593-1606. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004.
  49. Rohrbeck, R., Battistella, C., & Huizingh, E. (2015). Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101, 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.002.
  50. Ruff, F. (2014). The advanced role of corporate foresight in innovation and strategic management – Reflections on practical experiences from the automotive industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101, 37-48. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.07.013.
  51. Safe’i, R., Latumahina, F. S., Sari Dewi, B., & Ardiansyah, F. (2021). Assessing the state and change of forest health of the proposed arboretum in Wan Abdul Rachman Grand Forest Park, Lampung, Indonesia. Biodiversitas, 22(4), 2072-2077. doi: 10.13057/biodiv/d220456.
  52. Said, W.B., & Hellara, S. (2013). Prospects for the application of strategic foresight in the tunisian context: The case of industrial companies. International Journal of Bussiness and Management, 8(15), 99-111. doi: 10.5539/ijbm.v8n15p99.
  53. Sarpong, D., & Maclean, M. (2014). Unpacking strategic foresight: A practice approach. Scandinavian Journal of Management, 30(1), 16-26. doi: 10.1016/j.scaman.2013.04.002.
  54. Sharma, G. (2017). Pros and cons of different sampling techniques. International journal of applied research, 3(7), 749-752.
  55. Shtal, T.V., Buriak, M.M., Amirbekuly, Y., Ukubassova, G.S., Kaskin, T.T., & Toiboldinova, Z.G. (2018). Methods of analysis of the external environment of business activities. Revista espacios, 39(12).
  56. Singhry, H.B., & Abd Rahman, A. (2019). Enhancing supply chain performance through collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment. Business Process Management Journal, 25(4), 625-646. doi: 10.1108/BPMJ-03-2017-0052.
  57. Sollosy, M.D. (2013). A contemporary examination of the Miles and Snow strategic typology through the lenses of dynamic capabilities and ambidexterity. Dissertation. Doctor of Business Administration. Kennesaw State University of Business Administration. Kennesaw State University.
  58. Statistics Indonesia (2022). Jawa Barat Rajai Produksi Anggrek Nasional pada 2021. -- [Online] Accessed on 2022, Dec 20.
  59. Tribunnews Jabar (2023). Meningkatnya Inflasi Masih Menjadi Tantangan Ekonomi Jabar di 2023. -- [Online] Accessed on 2023, Apr 2023.
  60. Utami, E.S.W., & dan Hariyanto, S. (2019). In Vitro Seed Germination and Seedling Development of a Rare Indonesian Native Orchid Phalaenopsis amboinensis J.J.Sm. Scientifica. doi: 10.1155/2019/8105138.
  61. Williams, S.J., Gale, S.W., Hinsley, A., Gao, J., & dan St. Johm, F.A. (2018). Using consumer preferences to characterize the trade of wild-collected ornamental orchids in China. Conservation Letters, 11(5), 1-8. doi: 10.1111/conl.12569.
  62. Wisdya, S. (2009). Analisis Risiko Produksi Anggrek Phalaenopsis pada PT Ekakarya Graha Flora di Cikampek, Jawa Barat. Thesis. Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics and Management. Bogor Agricultural University.
  63. Yoon, J., Kim, Y., Vonortas, N.S., & Han, S.W. (2018). Corporate foresight and innovation: the effects of integrative capabilities and organisational learning. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 633-645, doi: 10.1080/09537325.2017.1395407.


Metrics Loading ...